山东师范大学学报(自然科学版)

我国的人口出生率经历了很多阶段,尤其是近几年一直保持低人口出生率的态势.为了对未来我国人口出生率进行合理的预测,采用时间序列建模的方法,通过数据预处理、模型识别、参数估计以及模型检验与优化等步骤,建立了ARIMA(1,2,2)模型,并利用该模型对未来5年我国的人口出生率进行预测,得到的结果分别为12.16‰、12.23‰、12.25‰、12.19‰、12.27‰.根据预测结果得出未来5年我国仍然保持低人口出生率这一结论.基于研究结论,为改善未来我国低人口出生率这一状况提出了合理化建议.

The birth rate in our country has gone through many stages, especially in recent years, China has kept a low birth rate trend.In order to make a reasonable prediction of the future birth rate of China,after steps of the data preprocessing, model identification, parameter estimation and model validation,and optimization, we first developed an ARIMA(1,2,2) model for the birth rate best fitted for the years of 1949 to 2017, then applied the model to predict the birth rates in China for the five years of 2018 to 2022. The prediction results suggest that the birth rate will remain low for the next five years. We concluded with identified policy variables for birth rate management.